All professional players know that you should never underestimate the importance of variance in blackjack and other casino games.
- Some blackjack fans may think they have mastered all aspects of the game only because they can regularly win for an extended period.
- Others may decide they better stop playing blackjack as soon as they lose a few laps in a row.
Understanding the meaning and influence of variance is crucial to properly analyzing results.
What Is Variance in Blackjack?
Let's try to sort it out along with some other concepts.
Variance in blackjack can be defined as the deviation from the expected return to the player.
The expected result is the amount you anticipate winning or losing during a specific period. Usually, it is expressed as a percentage. This concept is closely related to the house edge in blackjack. You all know that all games in casinos are created so that the casino has an advantage.
Did you know that classic blackjack features a house edge of about 0.5%? Of course, this number matches reality only when playing by the basic strategy and avoiding blunders. Various deviations from standard rules change the percentage in one direction or another. That is, the expected return to the player is 99.5%.
Such a low (compared to other games) house edge makes blackjack one of the most profitable and attractive games for visitors.
You lose only 5$ from every 1000$ you stake. Of course, you should play perfectly, which is unlikely for a beginner. This low house edge makes blackjack variance less visible than in other casino games.
Practice Vs. Theory
Realizing that return to the player is purely theoretical is essential. You will rarely meet such a result after each shoe. Sometimes you will lose even more than half of your bets; in other cases, you may win.
This is natural. Otherwise, it would make no sense to join a blackjack table, if you knew exactly what you lose.
Dispersion is exactly these deviations from the original percentage of the house edge. A loss, which can be more than 5$ of 1000$ in the correct game, and winning of any amount – are the signs of variance in blackjack.
The result of the game will often differ from the previous one. Moreover, the difference can be very significant. Indeed, you will face major losses or wins. Perhaps, you'll never even leave the table, losing the required 0.5% of the bets.
This expectation implies your chances for a long-term (if not infinite) time. Every time you start playing blackjack, there is a probability of winning or losing beyond the expected range.
What to Expect Playing Blackjack
Such deviations may confuse inexperienced players. If you are not a professional blackjack player and play for fun, you may feel it is only about luck and nothing can be done about it. A professional or advanced player who plays by the basic strategy and knows some tricks will see the situation more dramatically.
After all, even tricks like card counting, shuffle tracking, and sequencing do not guarantee absolute winning unless casino hosts and dealers make serious mistakes.
The reason is that even extended gaming sessions (for example, six months of regular playing) are just a tiny period if you base on the statement that the house edge is based on the theoretically infinite number of hands. So you can not get a complete picture of how effectively you play blackjack. You may have just seen the extreme limits of the dispersion.
Blackjack Tips for Beginners
Underestimating the importance of the blackjack variance is dangerous because you may come to the wrong conclusions about your playing skills.
- You may leave the casino confident in your skills, although, in reality, it may not entirely be true, and you are not such a great player as you might think, based on the results.
- On the other hand, you can do everything right at the table but have catastrophically poor cards. Players should understand the meaning of the variance in blackjack. It will help them realize that it is impossible to analyze their growth, relying only on the outcome of the game sessions. You can play strictly by the basic strategy and lose, or make all random decisions and win.
This is the idea of dispersion in blackjack.
Some game math experts have calculated a standard variance in blackjack.
After analyzing the game, they got 723 million layouts when a player wins and 836 million when the casino wins.
A player wins in 144 million possible cases. If you take all these figures as 100%, you get the following situation (if playing blackjack correctly):
- The chances of loss are 49.1%,
- 42.42% of winning
- Draw - 8.47%.
Summary
Of course, blackjack is a game with a negative math expectation. The house edge guarantees you lose that in the infinite number of hands.
However, in a short period, your chances of winning or losing beyond the announced house edge are over 90%. Remember this the next time you analyze your achievements.